There’s a Run on Flour

The first episode of King Arthur Flour’s new video series, The Isolation Baking Show, features superstar bakers Gesine Bullock-Prodo and Jeffrey Hamelman tackling biscuits and French bread.  I loved Hamelman’s comment:

“The more you bake, the more you’ll learn the language of the bread.  The bread is always talking to you.”

Imagine my distress when my sisters, who both love to bake, alerted me that their beloved King Arthur Flour Company had temporarily run out of flour. And when I tried to order flour online from my supermarket, same problem with out of stocks.  It seems a large number of people have started baking bread.  Not just the quick rise kind.  Sourdough bread, using starters that take careful feeding.  It seems that some bakers actually name their starters.

The Seattle Times confirmed this trend is real.  Nationally, “sourdough” was the #1 recipe search term March 15 – April 30.

Meanwhile More People are Gardening with Worms

A few days ago I got to catch up with my client Steve Churchill, Founder of Urban Worm Company.  His company sells everything you need to start your own worm composting system at home.  Including the worms.

Urban Worm Company’s Vermicomposting Bin

Vermicomposting has become a popular means of turning food scraps into fertile soil for sustainable gardening. Aside from the benefits of growing your own food, his customers often talk about their worms as if they were pets.  So I understand there is inherent fun involved. But Steve’s business has exploded since COVID-19 hit.

What’s going on?

“Sales this spring have been incredible, beyond the normal seasonal surge. I think people are going back to the earth, and back to the USA,” Churchill says. “I’m repatriating manufacturing to the U.S.”

And COVID-19 has shown people how fragile our food system is.

“I’m hearing from some of my customers that food is harder to come by, and reliance on others is hard to come by.”

This week Steve is presenting at Marjorie Wildcraft’s Homegrown Food Summit where virtual attendees will be able to hear experts talking about how to become free of supermarkets and sustainably grow your own food and medicine.

Both bread baking and gardening require careful nurturing.  Both bring us back to nature.  We engage in actual communication with these living entities, whether it is feeling bread dough to tell whether it’s ready to go into the oven, or watching a bin full of red wigglers to see if they are hungry.

And with COVID-19 forcing us to stay home and fend for ourselves, we are becoming a little like – dare I say it – pioneers.

Sustainability:  Will All This Baking and Digging Last?

FMI, the food industry association, and The Hartman Group are tracking consumer changes as a result of COVID-19.  The most recent wave of research reveals that a whopping 76% of consumers have changed how they eat due to COVID-19.  41% report cooking more of their meals.  And 36% say they are following healthier eating habits.*

Meanwhile, sustainability has been a long term macro trend.  The Hartman Group’s syndicated research and long-standing datasets show how consumers views of sustainability have changed over time.  In 2007 the term “sustainability” was little used by consumers.  By 2019 it’s a cultural value and defining concern:

“Sustainability … touches on powerful ideals around honoring our connections with nature and one another.  It speaks to the hopes – and fears – we have for the world we leave to generations that follow us.”

So I am wondering what will happen after COVID-19 is contained and people go back to work.  Will we take our rediscovered gardening and baking habits with us?  Will what we have learned during lock-down help us better understand what it means to follow a sustainable path?

For those who got a taste for communing with nature, I suspect the answer is yes.

*Source:  FMI’s special U.S. Grocery trends COVID-19 Tracker conducted by FMI and The Hartman Group, April 15-25, 2020.

Calling All Food and Agriculture Entrepreneurs!

Grow-NY is a competition for startups with growth potential in food and agriculture. This includes:  physical products, hardware or software technologies, food, fuels, fibers, raw materials, and processes or systems. The startup must operate in the Grow-NY region for at least 12 months.

Deadline for submissions is July 15.  Finalists will get help in the form of mentorship, pitch training and a 3-day business development trip to the region to network with potential partners.

$3MM Dollar Ag-Tech Competition – $1MM Top Prize

2019 winners included a wild and wonderful range of ideas:

• Real Eats, a healthy meal delivery service – $1,000,000
• Dropcopter, automated pollination of orchard crops using unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) – $500,000
• Tiliter, software that uses AI and machine learning to automatically identify products (this is a Red Delicious apple, not a Pink Lady apple) – $500,000
• Capro-X, a system that turns Greek yogurt whey into bio-oil – $250,000
• Combplex, laser technology that eliminates mites that can devastate honeybee hives – $250,000
• The Perfect Granola, a food company that helps those in need and empowers the underserved – $250,000
• Whole Healthy Food, a natural way to reduce your body’s carbohydrate/calorie intake without changing your diet – $250,000

Continuing to Build on Unique Local Strengths

Source: The History Center

I not only went to Cornell twice, but I was born in Ithaca NY.  So I have many happy memories of visiting my grandparents there as a child.  For most of these halcyon years the Ithaca area was thriving, with companies like Smith Corona, National Cash Register, and Ithaca Gun.  But when these companies left or went out of business in the 70’s and ‘80’s, they took a large chunk of the local economy with them.

So it was extremely heartening to discover how enterprising and resilient this area actually has been over the years.

This fascinating history of Tompkins County’s entrepreneurial roots from the History Center speaks to the full range of companies that started and flourished here over the years.  Flour mills, confectioners, woolen mills, pottery works, iron bridges, iron works, calendar clocks, tobacco and cigar manufacturers, glass works, organs, bicycle chains, guns, typewriters, egg incubators, sauerkraut, silent films, pocketbooks, turbine components, cash registers, Moog synthesizers, high precision measurement tools, beer, and chocolates.

The region has always had wonderful growing conditions (the reward for its terrible winters). It also offers excellent water sources and hardworking people.  And because only Cornell University has both a top 10 agriculture program and a top 10 computer and information science program this university is uniquely able to stimulate research and innovation.  The combination is fertile, shall we say?

Grow-NY funding is provided by Empire State Development through its Upstate Revitalization Initiative. The competition will be administered by Cornell’s Center for Regional Economic Advancement.

With the Grow-NY competition now in its second year, I’m looking forward to seeing what this partnership will accomplish.

Their top customization trends for June 2018 lists 25 of the most popular products now being customized – everything from haircare systems targeting your personal hair goals to “alphabet” eyewear you can use to communicate messages from the comfort of your (raised?) eyebrows.  One of my favorites:  Woolly, out of Portland, got Kickstarter funding to build an interface that enables people to customize their wallets by choosing leather colors, stitching, pattern and inscription.  284 backers pledged $25,116 to help bring this project to life.

Source:  Woolly

Why is customization so popular?

Customization taps into deeper Trend Hunter–identified mega trends of personalization, co-creation, and curation.

Customization is also important because Millennials see customization as a form of luxury.  According to a MindSwarm study, Millennials perceive luxury differently than previous generations.  They recognize “True luxury” – think ultra-expensive Rolex watches – still exists but is not yet attainable.  But they also demand “My luxury,” where they can curate everyday experiences and products to make them their own.

So if Millennials are important to your business, customization could be an innovation opportunity.

Customization as an innovation opportunity

A client of mine, Knack, is disrupting the gift industry by enabling customers to create custom gift sets for just about any occasion:  employee appreciation programs, corporate events, thanking clients for their business, birthdays, wedding party gifts, college care packages, housiversaries (really, this is starting to become a thing in real estate) and even bad breakups.

When Knack looked at the market, it seemed saturated with gift baskets, florists, and “slap your corporate logo on this coffee mug” companies.  But nothing struck them as particularly innovative or fresh.  They researched giving from a number of different angles and learned, among other things, that when it comes to gifts, employees and customers really don’t want company swag, and that a lot of people care about where exactly their gifts come from.  Knack developed an ecommerce site that enables gift givers to custom tailor gifts by occasion, recipient, interest / product category, and ethos (local, handmade, sustainable, women entrepreneurs, < 10 employees).

They have been in business since 2014 and are getting great traction.

One of the most exciting parts about scaling a business is there are a lot of strategic choices to make.  That leads to a number of questions that Knack continues to revisit.

7 questions to ask when inviting your customers to design their own products:

• Are Millennials important to your business, either as direct purchasers or influencers? If so, how satisfied are they with existing solutions in your industry?
• What target segments are most important to prioritize, when it comes to customization?
• Who in your industry – or adjacent to your industry – is offering customization? What lessons can you learn from them?
• What dimensions should you customize on? Consider product features, how made, where made, and by whom.  What else?
• How much choice should you offer? Where’s the sweet spot?
• Will customers need help making a selection? What customer service is required?
• What technology is needed to make the user experience seamless and enjoyable?

I think regardless of industry, customization will continue to be an enduring trend.  I would love to hear about your experiences and share best practices.

Let me know!

This post was originally published by the American Marketing Executive Circle.

Macro trends are big social and economic shifts – technology, consumer demographics, culture, or historical turnings – that can reshape markets and create big new opportunities. When you pay attention to the horizon, you can see macro trends coming your way and have time to prepare for and capitalize on them.

In the natural world, scientists are making it easier than ever to tell if a tornado will hit.  The National Weather Service has an experimental strategy, Warn on Forecast, which allows forecasters to issue warnings before storms form, based on high-resolution satellite imagery, radar data and surface observations. This data is fed into a very high-resolution weather model that is run every 15 minutes for a period of time on storms of interest or for areas that could produce storms. The net benefit is that citizens have a lot longer time to respond.

But we don’t have early warning systems in the business world (at least, not this accurate).  And not every macro trend we see in the business world requires a full-out corporate response.  As marketers we need to evaluate trends and decide what to do about them.

An approach I have found helpful is inspired by how communities respond to real tornadoes:  spot the trend, describe it, understand it, predict its impact, and act.

Ten questions to assess macro trends

1. Where do trends ultimately affecting my business tend to start? (spot)

If you track back previous trends that have had an impact on your business, you can to identify some of the sources of these trends.  What past trends can you trace back to their beginnings?  Is there a pattern?

2. What are the warning signs? (spot)

Consider what early signs you could look for and how to measure them, to get further ahead of what’s happening.  For example, if you want to know what’s coming to your grocery store in the next year or two you might want to attend the Aspen Food & Wine Magazine Classic.

3. What trend do we see on the horizon? (describe)

How would you describe the trend?  It might be expressed as a new interest, an emerging concern, or a major shift in consumer attitudes or behaviors.

4. What are the roots of this trend? (understand)

Consider the history of the trend and its causes or inspirations.  Is this trend sparked by a single event, or is it part of a major historical cycle?

5. How fast is it developing / gaining in popularity? (understand)

Are opinion leaders embracing this trend?  Does the trend appear “sticky”?

Diffusion of Innovations theory tells us that when about 16% of the population adopts a new innovation, it reaches a tipping point where people think “everyone is doing it” and adoption accelerates.

6. Who or what will be affected?  (understand)

Consider who, and how many, will be affected.  Will this trend impact your core customers?  What other important constituencies, such as strategic partners, will be affected?

7. What will happen – good or bad – when the trend does take hold? (predict)

Role play what would happen to those affected if the trend takes hold.  What’s the initial impact likely to be?  What follow-on impacts will this cause, in turn?  What scenarios can you envision?

8. What are the likely consequences? (predict)

What are the benefits or how serious will the negative consequences be if the trend takes hold on a large scale?  If they are significant and long lasting, the trend requires a response.

9. What to do about it?  (act)

There are four main strategies for responding to trends:  embrace, counter, deflect, or ignore.  If you believe the trend will stick, and your company is likely to benefit, consider associating with the trend and building products or services to further capitalize on it.  If the trend is likely to threaten your business you can argue against it (counter) or try to change the conversation (deflect).  But if your most important constituencies aren’t affected, consider masterly inaction (ignore).

10. How shall we do it? (act)

Once you decide on your overall strategy, now you have the task of forming a specific plan and assigning people and resources.  Even if you have decided to ignore at trend, you’ll still need to communicate your reasoning to your constituencies.

______________________________________

In the natural world, when a tornado hits, your range of actions is pretty limited:  hope it doesn’t touch your neighborhood, try to out run it, or retreat to your underground bunker.

In business, we have more options, as long as we take a careful look at the trends coming our way.  I hope the questions above will help you evaluate and respond more effectively.

What’s your process for evaluating macro trends?  I’d love to hear.

This post was originally published by the American Marketing Executive Circle. 

(Main photo source: https://weather.com/news/weather/news/experimental-model-weather-tornado-warn-on-forecast)

This time I thought it would be useful to talk about a best practice you can use when you do have a chance to step away from your daily routine.

I call it Tornado Sighting. Otherwise called: keeping your eye on macro trends.

Macro trends are big social and economic shifts – technology, consumer demographics, culture, or historical turnings – that can reshape markets and create big new opportunities.

When you watch the horizon, you can see trends coming your way and have time to prepare for and capitalize on them. Understanding macro trends can also prevent you from being sideswiped by something you didn’t see coming.

Three ways to use macro trends to innovate more successfully

1. Research trends that could affect your business

Several years ago, the New England Journal of Medicine published a study on the Atkins Diet that showed people could lose weight by shifting their dietary intake from carbohydrates to protein. This was reported widely by the media, sparking consumer interest that quickly developed into a craze. The newly appointed U.S. retail president of Sara Lee wanted to understand how this trend would affect the company, which makes both Jimmy Dean sausages and other meat products (Atkins-friendly proteins) as well as pound cakes (evil carbohydrates).

We researched the literature and interviewed a variety of experts: the medical community, scientists, influential chefs, food trend researchers, manufacturers, media and consumers.

It became clear that the Atkins Diet would soon lose popularity, and that the much bigger issue would be obesity, which was not yet getting much press. Sara Lee was able to develop products and marketing plans that addressed the true long-term trend and avoid the distraction of launching short-lived products tied to what ultimately proved a diet fad.

Ask your team to search for information on a continuous basis, and report back on what trends might be coming your way. You can start with global macro trends from sources like Euromonitor for inspiration. Once you have a handle on which trends you want to pay most attention to, assign individual members of your team to each issue, to set them up as internal experts.

2. Identify and learn from your expert network

Of course, you can’t become an expert on everything, and the good news is that you don’t have to. There are plenty of people out there to learn from.

If your target audience is millennials, for example, find out who understands them well. Experts could include other companies marketing to the same target, psychologists, intergenerational consultants, even a panel of Millennials themselves. Follow their work; potentially enlist their active help.

If your company is incorporating virtual reality (VR) as part of your customer experience, for example, find out what companies are pushing the boundaries on VR and related technologies, what reporters and analysts are covering them, and follow them. CB Insights, a publication that serves the venture capital community, covers emerging startups and is a good place to hear about new technologies.

Conferences are a great way to immerse your team. This is also a great time to bring in your agency, as they are in the business of understanding different target audiences, technologies and cultural trends.

3. Build macro trends into your annual strategic planning process

At Nordstrom, in preparation for a Board meeting, we were once asked to investigate “What’s the future of service?” This was an interesting question coming from Nordstrom, as they are considered by many to represent the ultimate in service. But Nordstrom is humble enough to realize that they had to continue to earn that reputation every day.

We conducted secondary and primary research, including online anthropology, to understand how people talked about service, what companies they associated with great service, and why. One of the key findings was that service didn’t have to involve people – wow. The Board and executive team immediately saw the implications for Nordstrom’s brick-and-mortar stores and online business. As we see the rise of Amazon in fashion today, it’s obvious that they have begun a major competitor. Nordstrom will continue to evolve to serve their customers better.

It’s good discipline to look at macro trends as part of your strategic planning process. Make this its own section. Report on macro trends you see on the horizon and the strategic implications for your company. You can own this yourself, but it’s even more effective if you can invite your counterparts from other departments to contribute their thinking as well.

Now what?

It’s not enough to simply become aware of what’s going on, obviously. You’ll need to decide what should you do more of, less or, or change. to stay competitive.

What macro trends should you be paying attention to? I’d love to hear. 

This post was originally published by the American Marketing Executive Circle.

(Main photo source: http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2011/0418/Can-you-outsmart-a-tornado-Take-our-quiz/warning)

Just came back from the Johnson Advisory Council meeting at Cornell, where we discussed the NYC Tech Campus, recently announced by Mayor Bloomberg, and how Johnson will contribute to it. This will be transformational for the business school and for NYC! See below for more.

Cornell wins NYC Tech Campus bid

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg named Cornell and Technion the winners of his highly publicized competition to create what he called a “game-changing” applied sciences and technology campus, December 19, 2011 at a press conference at Weill Cornell Medical College.

http://www.cornell.edu/nyc/